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Navigating Uncertainty

One thing most people can agree on in early April 2024 is that no one knows what to expect right now. Federal agencies are being closed at a record pace, tariffs are rocking global finances, AI is changing faster than most people can keep up with, everyone has an opinion on this, and no one can anticipate what might happen next. The stock market is a prime example of the uncertainty, and on the day I started writing this the Dow Jones surged by 800 points and ultimately fell by 600. Today as I continue writing, it rose by nearly 3000 points.

There are countless ways to reach when life becomes chaotic. Some people "don't look up" as the movie's title states, because as long as you can't see the asteroid heading straight towards you it does not exist. Some like to lean into the chaos, acting like Loki, the Norse god of mischief and disruption. Others protest through marches, speeches, and boycotts. All of these are human reactions on which I place no judgment. Based on my beliefs regarding the circumstances, I have reacted in each of these methods.

It is normal to feel anxious and panicky when the world is shaking all around us. In his incredible book The Psychology of Money, author Morgan Housel writes, "A good definition of an investing genius is the man or woman who can do the average thing when all those around them are going crazy." This goes beyond investing to all facets of life.  Consistently doing basic things well outperforms inconsistent feats of great success or failure over time. 

In sports when a slump sets in the coach will often revert back to basics. It might feel like the answer is to push harder, be more innovative, and take more risks to break through. More likely, something is out of balance and a return to the fundamentals is what is needed to re-orient and get back on track. Amazon is known as one of the most innovative corporations to ever exist by building new ways to optimize their fundamental beliefs that customers will always want low prices, fast delivery, and great customer service.

As a leader, the first question to answer is what are the fundamentals that make your organization great. Each organization has something different, but understanding these is the foundation for navigating uncertain times with your people. A statement such as "I cannot tell you what the future holds or how decisions outside of our control will impact what we do, but what I can tell you is our fundamental belief that (insert belief here) is our path through any challenge" will calm the minds of those being led and give something tangible for everyone to grasp onto. That reminder of what made your place great to begin with is the north star to follow.

I try to live by the acronym KISS, keep it simple stupid. This is a reminder to not overcomplicate matters and to seek the root cause of the issue to overcome. Then, I need to utilize my inherent strengths to clear away the confusion and turn any threat into an opportunity. I do not come by this naturally, and it is why having a support system is so incredibly important. At home, my support system is my wife. At work, it is my leadership team. Find your team, identify what has always made you and your organization great, and rally the troops through a simple, tangible message. Stay consistent, do not panic, and the result will be a success.

Sources:

Image generated with ChatGPT

Housel, Morgan. The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. Harriman House, 2020.


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