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Sigmoid Curve

In the post on "Coaching Up First" I discussed looking for signs that a person you are leading is starting to hit a downturn in their productivity. This downturn is natural in any relationship or endeavor, and social scientists have a term for it, which is the Sigmoid Curve. This image from a research article does a great job of visualizing this curve:

Source: https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1123357.pdf


A new romantic relationship usually skyrockets with infatuation before hitting a peak, and doesn't have the implementation dip. Most new situations do start off with an initial adjustment period. A new habit or a new work initiative is hard because you have to unlearn old ways. After sticking with it, you start to get the hockey stick result, and the growth phase kicks in.

At some point we stall out. We get comfortable in what we are doing, life throws a curve ball at us that knocks us off course, or we lose sight of the "why" we are doing what we have chosen to do. Whatever the reason, when we stall we have enough inertia to keep coasting forward for a bit, but friction takes over and we start declining in our progress. In our own lives hopefully there is a key person in our life who can help us realize that the decline is happening and we reset sooner than later. I think people that are in the top 20% of producers in organizations are very good at this, and make the pivot at the "ideal transformation point" to keep growing. This is when entrepreneurs are ready to make the jump into their next endeavor.

But most people will not reflect on this on their own. It is the job of the leader to know their people, know what used to make them function at a high level, see signs of them slipping, and promptly intervene for positive growth. There may still be another small dip when the re-invention is happening, but then the growth occurs again. 

The bottom graph shows that often we are all too late in recognizing that the growth has stopped, and when the decline is actively happening we try to turn it all around. The extra amount of energy needed at that point is tremendously greater than what we should have expended when the growth was reaching its inflection point.

Leading with empathy is the only true way to have the greatest chance of intervening early enough to make the change before too much is lost. What are the negative impacts to the person and what they are doing if the slow down and downturn is allowed to happen? What are the positive impacts of recognizing that change, having the hard conversations, and supporting their new growth curve? Prioritizing people has to be high on the list of anyone leading.



 

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